COVID-19 Daily Bulletin

Category:COVID-19

COVID-19 – Weekend Brand Bulletin

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, during this critical time Autometrics will be closely monitoring the influence of the pandemic on shopper demand of new vehicles in the US. In addition to the Autometrics daily Bulletin, our new Brand Focus Weekend Bulletin, with sightly deeper analysis,  provides a high-level view of how new vehicle demand has been tracking for a focus brand and for a selection its nameplates, each weekend. More detailed data can be provided upon request.

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Brand Focus: Ford

Published June 14, 2020



 

 

In conjunction with our daily bulletin looking at how market demand has been responding to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent opening up of states, we begin this series of brand focused bulletins by looking at Ford. With a slightly deeper analysis than our daily bulletins, we provide a high-level view of how new vehicle demand has been tracking for Ford as a brand and for a selection its nameplates.

Using national and state data, we present some demand highlights of how Ford has performed during this volatile period, generally tracking data using 7 day and 30 day moving averages and comparing some of those metrics to the equivalent period of the prior year.

Brand Performance 

Ford’s long-term Shopper Share trend is shown below. The share has been falling for some time, although a 2 degree polynomial trend, shown on the chart, would suggest it has bottomed out and may even be rising again. The current 7 day comparison to the prior year shows a 7% increase in Shopper Share, in some way reflecting Ford’s particularly poor start to June 2019. 

Figure 1 – Brand Shopper Share

Looking at the 30 day moving average figures in comparison to other brands, Ford is currently tracking with about 2% lower Shopper Share than in 2019. Of the larger brands, Chevrolet, Nissan, GMC, Jeep and Dodge are all showing significant 30 day moving average growth compared to 2019.  

 Figure 2 – Shopper Share Growth/Decline From Prior Year, with comparisons

From the map below, it is evident that the 7 day Shopper Share growth numbers are well spread across the nation, and generally higher in the South and West.

 Figure 3 – Shopper Share Growth/Decline by State

Looking at a map of the 7 Day Shopper Count figures below, rather than share of the industry, Ford’s demand is tracking about 5% lower than the prior year, with some significant declines. We can see from the National Shopper Demand Index that this overall decline is less than the industry average, but that Ford’s state by state picture in many ways reflects the picture of the industry as a whole. 

 Figure 4 – Shoppers Growth/Decline by State
Figure 5 – Background – National Industry Shopper Demand
 Figure 6 – Background – Industry Shoppers Growth by State

Ford’s Demand Mix by Category, below, has been tracking with some similar characteristics to the long term industry trends (also below), with the significant growth in the national Pickup and SUV shoppers evident in the Ford figures.

Figure 7 – Vehicle Category Mix of Demand
Figure 8 – Background – Industry Category Mix of Demand

Model Performance

The chart below summaries the Q1 2020 figures for Sales and Demand for Ford by model. One can see that the dominant F Series is currently positioning below the reference line on the chart (the reference line shows Shopper Share equalling market share). This demonstrates that it has a higher Conversion Index of Shoppers than the industry average, which typically indicates competitive pricing and heightened brand loyalty compared to its competitors.

Figure 9 – Model Mix – Share of Demand and Sales

To give an overall picture of model demand, we have summarised the 30 day moving average growth/decline of Shopper Share demand for each model below. The Shopper Shares are calculated with respect to the segments each model competes in, and the growth metrics are comparing the current levels with the equivalent period of the prior year. The segmentation used for each model has been defined by Autometrics in this instance.

Figure 10 – Model Shopper Share of Segment Growth

Looking at Ford’s three largest nameplates, we can see how the demand numbers and volatility rose significantly with the pandemic taking hold in March, and subsequently appears to have fallen back to earlier levels.

Figure 11 – Indexed Shopper Demand for selected models

Taking a look at the Autometrics Growth Quadrant for Ford, which we focus on in our quarterly report series, Q1 2020 performance compared to Q4 2019 showed only one model, the Escape, to be an Improver. However, a number of models experienced market share growth through improved Shopper Conversion, with Fusion and Explorer showing 34% and 19% Shopper Conversion Growth respectively – a sign of competitive pricing to convert declining shopper numbers and achieve increased sales market share.

Figure 12 – Autometrics Growth Quadrant Summary

Selected Model Trends

F Series
Demand Cross Shopping for the F Series is shown below for competitors in the same segment as the F Series. It is a highly competitive segment, despite only having a handful of competitors, resulting in the F Series cross shopping being quite evenly spread amongst Sierra, Silverado, RAM and Titan.

Figure 13 – Cross Shopping Summary – F Series

The F Series Shopper Share of Segment is shown below alongside its two closest cross shopped competitors.

Figure 14 – Shopper Share of Segment for selected competitors – F Series

Explorer
Demand Cross Shopping for Explorer is shown below for competitors in the same segment as the Explorer.

Figure 15 – Cross Shopping Summary – Explorer

The Explorer Shopper Share of Segment is shown below alongside its two closest cross shopped competitors.

Figure 16 – Shopper Share of Segment for selected competitors – Explorer

Escape
Demand Cross Shopping for Escape is shown below for competitors in the same segment as the Escape.

Figure 17 – Cross Shopping Summary – Escape

The Escape Shopper Share of Segment is shown below alongside its two closest cross shopped competitors.

Figure 18 – Shopper Share of Segment for selected competitors – Escape

To find out more about Autometrics and what bespoke detailed analysis we can provide to help your business spot opportunities and threats specific to your requirements, please contact insights@autometrics.com.

Please stay safe.

Autometrics Insight Lab

COVID-19 Daily Bulletin

 

Weekly Update  – Including data up to September 18, 2020
  • The 7-day shopper demand fell by a significant 12% to 13% across vehicle categories.
  • The 30-day shopper demand fell by 1% to 3% across vehicle categories. 

For a selection of brands, the state maps below show:

  • 7-day Shopper Counts compared to the 7 days ending 4 weeks ago;
  • 7-day Shopper Shares of demand compared to the 7 days ending 4 weeks ago;
  • 30-day Shopper Shares of demand compared to the equivalent 30 days of the prior year. 
The charts show the geographic breakdown of figures from the following summary:

This series of weekly bulletins seeks to provide a high-level view of how new vehicle demand has been tracking during the COVID-19 pandemic. As each state continues to navigate policy on how to best deal with the competing forces of the virus and economic and social impacts, we will continue to report on shopper demand, monitoring as it evolves and responds to this ever changing environment.

Using national, state and DMA data, we present some demand highlights of how vehicle categories and brands have performed during this period, generally tracking data on moving averages, and in comparison to the equivalent period of the prior year and prior month. We also will choose an individual brand to focus on each week.

Shopper Demand levels and comparisons to the Prior Year
Figure 1 (a) tracks the industry national trend in Shopper Demand (using an indexed 7 day moving average metric) and plots this Shopper Demand for 2020 and 2019. Demand over the last week has fallen sharply again, having showed some signs of recovery the previous week. Shopper demand during Q3 will close well down on the prior year and also the prior quarter. 

Figure 1 (a) – National Daily Shopper Index 2

The 30-day moving average picture below, which adds in indexed Shopper Demand for 2018, continues to show the significant and recently consistent disparity between 2020 demand and that of the prior two years. 

Figure 1 (b) – National Daily Shopper Index 2
 Figure 1 (c) – Total Monthly Indexed National Shopper Demand 4

4The monthly shoppers index uses average daily shoppers, with the first day of 2019 considered as the index base and given a value of 100. The current month and its 2019 equivalent reports ‘month-to-date’ figures. Other months report full month data.

Category Volatility and Shopper Share
The figure below shows the indexed shopper demand by vehicle category on a 7-day moving average basis. Pickups continue to lead the pack in terms of 18 month growth, followed closely by Crossovers and SUVs. Cars and Vans have generally been on a downward track over the 18 months. This relative pattern between the categories appears quite stable.

 Figure 2 (a) – Indexed National Shopper Demand by Vehicle Category 2

2The Shopper Index 7 day Moving Average  is the normalized shopper count over the last 7 days. The first day of 2019 (Jan 1st, 2019) is considered as the index base and is given a value of 100. All other days are shown relative to that day.

In terms of shopper share, the long-term chart below shows that SUV’s continue to dominate the market, but Pickups and Crossovers both continue to increase their share. With the fall of SUV share during 2020, one can pick out the possible trend of a more equal split of the market between Cars, SUVs and Pickups, with all three being chased by Crossovers. This coming together of the demand for categories is sometimes accompanied by a blurring of vehicle types, where distinctions between Sport Utility, Compact Utility and Crossover vehicles may be becoming ever harder to discern. 

 Figure 2 (b) – Vehicle Category Shopper Share Trends3

3The Shopper Share is calculated based on average daily shoppers.

Shopper Conversion
It appears that conversion of shopper demand shifted slightly during the pandemic. The Autometrics Report for Q2 looked at conversion patterns and concluded that there had been a slight fall in the overall sales-to-demand conversion ratio in Q2, from 24% to 21%.

Market Highlights


The next series of charts show state level and DMA level breakdowns of market demand. These charts compare (i) the 7-day shopper demand to the 7-day period 4 weeks prior and (ii) the 30-day shopper demand of 2020 with the equivalent 30-day period in the prior year. The figures and charts are intended to help show how different reopening policies across different states may influence new vehicle demand.

The chart below shows how the large decline in 30-day Shopper Demand from 2019 is spread right across the country, with deep declines in every state. This has largely been the case throughout the summer months. 

Figure 3 (a) – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State

The 7-day comparison to demand data from 4 weeks ago, below, shows a more variable pattern, but declines are clearly widespread.

Figure 3 (b) – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State

Looking at the relative shares of each state, in comparison to prior year and the prior month, we can attempt to pick out which states are faring relatively better than others over the 12 month period and over a one month period. 

Figure 3 (c)– Growth/Decline in Shopper Share by State
Figure 3 (d)– Growth/Decline in Shopper Share by State

Looking at demand by DMA, some of the top 20 DMAs are now showing a strengthening of demand over the last 4 weeks. 

Figure 4 (a) – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand in Selected Markets
Figure 4 (b) – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand in Selected Markets

Category Highlights


The differences in shopper demand across vehicle categories compared to the prior year can again be seen in the following series of charts by vehicle category using 7-day averages. All categories are tracking below their 2019 levels. Cars are faring the worst over the 12 month period, followed by SUVs. 

Figure 5 (a) – National Daily Shopper Index for SUVs
Figure 5 (b) – National Daily Shopper Index for Cars
Figure 5 (c) – National Daily Shopper Index for Pickups 
Figure 5 (d) – National Daily Shopper Index for Crossovers

State maps of the 30-day Shopper Demand by vehicle category are shown below. Essentially, only Pickups are showing any growth in any state over 12 months.

Figure 6 (a)  – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State and Vehicle Category – SUVs
Figure 6 (b)  – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State and Vehicle Category – Cars
Figure 6 (c)  – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State and Vehicle Category – Pickups
Figure 6 (d)  – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State and Vehicle Category – Crossovers

Brand Highlights


The charts below show the growth/decline for a selection of major brands across the nation by state. The figures compare (i) shopper demand for the last 30 days with the shopper demand of the equivalent period in the prior year, and (ii) shopper demand for the last 7 days with the 7-day period ending 4 weeks ago.

Figure 7 (a) – Growth/Decline for Acura
Figure 7 (b) – Growth/Decline for BMW
Figure 7 (c) – Growth/Decline for Jaguar
Figure 7 (d) – Growth/Decline for Lincoln
Figure 7 (e) – Growth/Decline for Mitsubishi

Brand Focus: Mazda


Using national and state data, we present here some demand highlights of how Mazda has performed during this period, generally tracking data using 7-day and 30-day moving averages and comparing some of those metrics to the equivalent period of the prior year and over the last 12 months.

Brand Performance
Mazda’s long-term Shopper Share trend is shown below. The annual trend has been quite volatile, but generally positive during 2020, resulting in current Shopper Share being well above the prior year (30-day metric increase of 8% compared to the equivalent period in 2019). The more recent performance also shows an improvement over the last 4 weeks (7-day metric: 4%, 30-day metric: 7%).

Figure 8 – Brand Shopper Share

Looking at the 30-day moving average figures from prior year in comparison to other brands, the 8% Shopper Share increase places Mazda well ahead of the main pack, chasing a handful of larger brands that have picked up the lion’s share of growth since the prior year.

Figure 9 – Shopper Share Growth/Decline from Prior Year, with comparisons

From the map below, we can see some disparity in Mazda’s 7-day Shopper Share over the last 4 weeks across the country, indicating a fluctuation in performance by state, combing to yield a 3.6% gain in shopper share nationally. 

Figure 10 – Shopper Share Growth/Decline by State
Figure 11 – Shopper Share Growth/Decline by State
Figure 12 – Shopper Share Growth/Decline by State

Mazda’s Demand Mix by Category, below, to a slight extent reflects the respective performances of Cars and Crossovers in the industry, albeit that Mazda Cars are holding share better than in the industry as a whole. 

Figure 13 – Vehicle Category Mix of Demand

Model Performance


The chart below summarises the Q2 2020 figures for Sales and Demand for Mazda by model. The reference line on the chart shows shopper share equalling market share. Nameplates below the line are converting shoppers to sales at a higher ratio than the average, and nameplates above the line are having relative difficulty converting shoppers to sales. Mazda nameplates are dispersed slightly more than many OEMs, appearing to exhibit an independence in pricing strategies and pricing qualities in the eyes of consumers. CX-9 is below the line, appearing to be priced competitively and convert at a higher ratio than some of its stablemates.

Figure 14 – Model Mix – Share of Demand and Sales

For an overall picture of demand for Mazda nameplates, we have summarised the 30-day moving average growth/decline of Shopper Share demand compared to prior year for a selection of models below. The Shopper Shares are calculated with respect to the segments each model competes in, and the growth metrics are comparing the current levels with the equivalent period of the prior year. The segmentation used for each model has been defined by Autometrics in this instance. The MX-5, which is clearly relatively high volume in its segment, has picked up significant Shopper Share in its segments since the prior year on this metric. 

Figure 15 – Model Shopper Share of Segment Growth

Looking at a few of Mazda’s nameplates, from the indexed Shopper Demand tracks below we can see impressive rise of MX-5 throughout Q2, along with Q2 volatility in all three nameplates.  

Figure 16 – Indexed Shopper Demand for Selected Models

Following the same three nameplates plus the new entrant CX-30, but looking at Shopper Share in their respective segments over the last 18 months, we can see that MX-5 continued to pick up share in its segment well into Q3, despite a regression of its demand in July and August. The CX-30 quickly picked up a healthy share of segment but appears to have flatlined since mid Q2.

Figure 17 – Shopper Share of Segment for Selected Models

Taking a look at the Autometrics Growth Quadrant for Mazda, Q2 2020 performance showed Mazda 3 to be an Improver, simultaneously picking up Shopper Share and Shopper Conversion. MX-5 was a Share Improver, ie. improving Shopper Share while experiencing a decline in Shopper Conversion. This indicates it had difficulty maintaining its conversion ratio in its segments, which typically indicates increased pressure due to competitive pricing from competitors. Nevertheless, its improvement in Shopper Share was more than sufficient to overcome the decline in Shopper Conversion to result in a healthy Market Share increase. 

Figure 18 – Autometrics Growth Quadrant

Selected Model Trends


CX-9
Demand Cross Shopping for CX-9 is shown below for competitors in the Large Crossover segment. The shopper demand matchup against Traverse is clear. 

Figure 19 – Cross Shopping Summary

CX-9’s Shopper Share of Segment is shown below alongside Traverse and Acadia. CX-9 appears to have made little inroad into the lead both models have over it in the segment. 

Figure 20 – Shopper Share of Segment for Selected Competitors

CX-30
Demand Cross Shopping for CX-30 is shown below, for competitors in the Small/Compact Crossover segment.

Figure 21 – Cross Shopping Summary

CX-30’s Shopper Share of Segment is shown below alongside HR-V and Crosstrek.

Figure 22 – Shopper Share of Segment for Selected Competitors

To find out more about Autometrics and what bespoke detailed analysis we can provide to help your business spot opportunities and threats specific to your requirements, please contact  insights@autometrics.com.

Please stay safe.

Autometrics Insight Lab

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