COVID-19 Daily Bulletin

Category:COVID-19

COVID-19 – Weekend Brand Bulletin

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, during this critical time Autometrics will be closely monitoring the influence of the pandemic on shopper demand of new vehicles in the US. In addition to the Autometrics daily Bulletin, our new Brand Focus Weekend Bulletin, with sightly deeper analysis,  provides a high-level view of how new vehicle demand has been tracking for a focus brand and for a selection its nameplates, each weekend. More detailed data can be provided upon request.

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Brand Focus: Ford

Published June 14, 2020



 

 

In conjunction with our daily bulletin looking at how market demand has been responding to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent opening up of states, we begin this series of brand focused bulletins by looking at Ford. With a slightly deeper analysis than our daily bulletins, we provide a high-level view of how new vehicle demand has been tracking for Ford as a brand and for a selection its nameplates.

Using national and state data, we present some demand highlights of how Ford has performed during this volatile period, generally tracking data using 7 day and 30 day moving averages and comparing some of those metrics to the equivalent period of the prior year.

Brand Performance 

Ford’s long-term Shopper Share trend is shown below. The share has been falling for some time, although a 2 degree polynomial trend, shown on the chart, would suggest it has bottomed out and may even be rising again. The current 7 day comparison to the prior year shows a 7% increase in Shopper Share, in some way reflecting Ford’s particularly poor start to June 2019. 

Figure 1 – Brand Shopper Share

Looking at the 30 day moving average figures in comparison to other brands, Ford is currently tracking with about 2% lower Shopper Share than in 2019. Of the larger brands, Chevrolet, Nissan, GMC, Jeep and Dodge are all showing significant 30 day moving average growth compared to 2019.  

 Figure 2 – Shopper Share Growth/Decline From Prior Year, with comparisons

From the map below, it is evident that the 7 day Shopper Share growth numbers are well spread across the nation, and generally higher in the South and West.

 Figure 3 – Shopper Share Growth/Decline by State

Looking at a map of the 7 Day Shopper Count figures below, rather than share of the industry, Ford’s demand is tracking about 5% lower than the prior year, with some significant declines. We can see from the National Shopper Demand Index that this overall decline is less than the industry average, but that Ford’s state by state picture in many ways reflects the picture of the industry as a whole. 

 Figure 4 – Shoppers Growth/Decline by State
Figure 5 – Background – National Industry Shopper Demand
 Figure 6 – Background – Industry Shoppers Growth by State

Ford’s Demand Mix by Category, below, has been tracking with some similar characteristics to the long term industry trends (also below), with the significant growth in the national Pickup and SUV shoppers evident in the Ford figures.

Figure 7 – Vehicle Category Mix of Demand
Figure 8 – Background – Industry Category Mix of Demand

Model Performance

The chart below summaries the Q1 2020 figures for Sales and Demand for Ford by model. One can see that the dominant F Series is currently positioning below the reference line on the chart (the reference line shows Shopper Share equalling market share). This demonstrates that it has a higher Conversion Index of Shoppers than the industry average, which typically indicates competitive pricing and heightened brand loyalty compared to its competitors.

Figure 9 – Model Mix – Share of Demand and Sales

To give an overall picture of model demand, we have summarised the 30 day moving average growth/decline of Shopper Share demand for each model below. The Shopper Shares are calculated with respect to the segments each model competes in, and the growth metrics are comparing the current levels with the equivalent period of the prior year. The segmentation used for each model has been defined by Autometrics in this instance.

Figure 10 – Model Shopper Share of Segment Growth

Looking at Ford’s three largest nameplates, we can see how the demand numbers and volatility rose significantly with the pandemic taking hold in March, and subsequently appears to have fallen back to earlier levels.

Figure 11 – Indexed Shopper Demand for selected models

Taking a look at the Autometrics Growth Quadrant for Ford, which we focus on in our quarterly report series, Q1 2020 performance compared to Q4 2019 showed only one model, the Escape, to be an Improver. However, a number of models experienced market share growth through improved Shopper Conversion, with Fusion and Explorer showing 34% and 19% Shopper Conversion Growth respectively – a sign of competitive pricing to convert declining shopper numbers and achieve increased sales market share.

Figure 12 – Autometrics Growth Quadrant Summary

Selected Model Trends

F Series
Demand Cross Shopping for the F Series is shown below for competitors in the same segment as the F Series. It is a highly competitive segment, despite only having a handful of competitors, resulting in the F Series cross shopping being quite evenly spread amongst Sierra, Silverado, RAM and Titan.

Figure 13 – Cross Shopping Summary – F Series

The F Series Shopper Share of Segment is shown below alongside its two closest cross shopped competitors.

Figure 14 – Shopper Share of Segment for selected competitors – F Series

Explorer
Demand Cross Shopping for Explorer is shown below for competitors in the same segment as the Explorer.

Figure 15 – Cross Shopping Summary – Explorer

The Explorer Shopper Share of Segment is shown below alongside its two closest cross shopped competitors.

Figure 16 – Shopper Share of Segment for selected competitors – Explorer

Escape
Demand Cross Shopping for Escape is shown below for competitors in the same segment as the Escape.

Figure 17 – Cross Shopping Summary – Escape

The Escape Shopper Share of Segment is shown below alongside its two closest cross shopped competitors.

Figure 18 – Shopper Share of Segment for selected competitors – Escape

To find out more about Autometrics and what bespoke detailed analysis we can provide to help your business spot opportunities and threats specific to your requirements, please contact insights@autometrics.com.

Please stay safe.

Autometrics Insight Lab

COVID-19 Daily Bulletin

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, during this critical time Autometrics will be closely monitoring the influence of the pandemic on shopper demand of new vehicles in the US. Autometrics daily update will provide a high-level insight into the national demand and highlight some key DMA movements. More detailed data can be provided upon request.

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Daily Update #107  (Including data up to July 9)
  • Yesterday’s 1-day shopper demand fell by around 5% across vehicle categories.
  • The 7-day shopper demand rose slightly (2%) and the 30-day shopper demand held steady

For a selection of brands, the state maps below show:

  • 7-day Shopper Counts compared to the 7 days ending 4 weeks ago;
  • 7-day Shopper Shares of demand compared to the 7 days ending 4 weeks ago;
  • 30-day Shopper Shares of demand compared to the equivalent 30 days of the prior year. 
The charts show the geographic breakdown of figures from the following summary:-


This series of daily bulletins seeks to monitor at a high level how new vehicle demand has been tracking in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. As each state navigates policy on how to best deal with the competing forces of the virus and economic fallout, we will continue to report on shopper demand, monitoring as it evolves and responds to this ever changing environment.

Using national and state data, we present some demand highlights of how vehicle categories and brands have performed during this volatile period, generally tracking data from day to day, as moving averages, and in comparison to the equivalent period of the prior year.

Shopper Demand levels and comparisons to the Prior Year
Figure 2 (a) tracks the industry national trend in Shopper Demand (using an indexed 7 day moving average metric) and plots this Shopper Demand for 2020 and 2019. Since the start of June the difference in demand this year compared to last year has been evident, with a significant gap appearing in the first half of the month, followed by a complete divergence in demand tracks in the second half of the month, now leaving industry demand tracking almost 40% below 2019 levels on a 7-day moving average basis and over 23% below on a 30-day moving average basis.

The 30 day moving average picture, in Figure 2 (b), emphasises this point, adding how Shopper demand tracked in 2018, which was again significantly above current levels. The Shopper Demand in 2020 is now significantly lower than both 2019 and 2018, and in fact lower than 2017, with the lowest Shopper Demand in June for 5 years. This reduction in demand may be attributable to other factors as well as the pandemic, and in fact comparisons to 2019 may be challenging as 2019 had almost unprecedented growth from mid-June until the end of July. Also, conversely, the pent-up demand build over the period of State’s shelter in place polices may have temporarily altered shopping patterns.

Figure 1 – National Change in 1-Day Shopper Demand 1

11-Day Shopper Demand is measured by state for the report date, in local times, and compared to the prior day.

Figure 2 (a) – National Daily Shopper Index 2
Figure 2 (b) – National Daily Shopper Index 2
 Figure 2 (c) – Total Monthly Indexed National Shopper Demand 4

4The monthly shoppers index uses average daily shoppers, with the first day of 2019 considered as the index base and given a value of 100. The current month and its 2019 equivalent reports ‘month-to-date’ figures. Other months report full month data.

Category Volatility and Shopper Share
Figure 2(d) shows the indexed shopper demand by vehicle category. During the early pandemic period Pickups gained significant demand and volatility, but since May all categories have been showing rather similar behaviour and Pickups have fallen back down to an index comparable to SUV’s and Crossover levels (all figures are indexed to their initial 2019 levels).

 Figure 2 (d) – Indexed National Shopper Demand by Vehicle Category 2

2The Shopper Index 7 day Moving Average  is the normalized shopper count over the last 7 days. The first day of 2019 (Jan 1st, 2019) is considered as the index base and is given a value of 100. All other days are shown relative to that day.

 Figure 2 (e) – Vehicle Category Shopper Share Trends3

3The Shopper Share is calculated based on average daily shoppers.

Shopper Conversion
With auto manufacturer’s sales continuing to be significantly lower than 2019, it follows that conversion of shopper demand may have shifted during the pandemic. Our quarterly report for Q2 will be looking to see whether conversion patterns have shifted as a result of the pandemic, and whether the economic fallout of the pandemic will create a more long-term shift in conversion patterns.

Market Highlights


The next series of charts show DMA level and state level analysis of market demand. These charts compare (i) the 7-day shopper demand to the 7-day period 4 weeks prior and (ii) the 30-day shopper demand of 2020 with the equivalent 30-day period in the prior year. The figures and charts are intended to help show how different reopening policies across different states may influence new vehicle demand.

The charts below show how the significant decline in 30 day Shopper Demand compared to 2019 is spread across the country. With the decline from prior year being so significant, we have added the comparison to demand data from 4 weeks ago.  This combined picture better differentiates between the states to judge how demand is changing over time and how the states are faring compared to each other during the pandemic.

Figure 3 (a) – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State
Figure 3 (b) – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State
Figure 3 (c)– Growth/Decline in Shopper Share by State

State maps of the 30 day Shopper Demand by vehicle category are shown below. The pattern of demand for SUVs is similar to the national trend, as one might expect for such a large category. Even Pickups are now showing a 30-day fall from prior year.

Figure 4 (a)  – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State and Vehicle Category – SUVs
Figure 4 (b)  – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State and Vehicle Category – Crossovers
Figure 4 (c)  – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State and Vehicle Category – Cars
Figure 4 (d)  – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand by State and Vehicle Category – Pickups
Figure 5 (a) – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand in Selected Markets
Figure 5 (b) – Growth/Decline in Shopper Demand in Selected Markets

Brand Highlights


The charts below show the growth/decline for a selection of major brands across the nation by state. The figures compare (i) shopper demand for the last 30 days with the shopper demand of the equivalent period in the prior year, and (ii) shopper demand for the last 7 days with the 7 day period ending 4 weeks ago.

Figure 7 (a) – Growth/Decline for BMW
Figure 7 (b) – Growth/Decline for Cadillac
Figure 7 (c) – Growth/Decline for Dodge
Figure 7 (d) – Growth/Decline for Ford
Figure 7 (e) – Growth/Decline for Land Rover
Figure 7 (f) – Growth/Decline for Mazda
Figure 7 (g) – Growth/Decline for Mercedes-Benz
Figure 7 (h)- Growth/Decline for Subaru
Figure 7 (i) – Growth/Decline for Volvo

Category Highlights


The differences in shopper demand across vehicle categories compared to the prior year can again be seen in the following series of charts by vehicle category using 7 day averages.

Figure 8 (a) – National Daily Shopper Index for SUVs
Figure 8 (b) – National Daily Shopper Index for Crossovers
Figure 8 (c) – National Daily Shopper Index for Cars
Figure 8 (d) – National Daily Shopper Index for Pickups

2 The data is up to July 9, 2020.

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, during this critical time Autometrics will be closely monitoring the influence of the pandemic on shopper demand of new vehicles in the US. Autometrics daily update will provide a high-level insight into the national demand and highlight some key DMA movements. More detailed data can be provided upon request.

To find out more about Autometrics and what bespoke detailed analysis we can provide to help your business spot opportunities and threats specific to your requirements, please contact insights@autometrics.com.

Please stay safe.

Autometrics Insight Lab

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